TRIZ Paper: Japan TRIZ Symposium 2009 Keynote


Use of TRIZ for Prediction of the Future of Technological Systems
Boris Zlotin, Alla Zusman (Ideation International Inc, USA)
The Fifth TRIZ Symposium in Japan, Held by Japan TRIZ Society on Sept. 10-12, 2009 at National Women's Education Center, Ranzan-machi, Hiki-gun, Saitama, Japan
Introduction by Toru Nakagawa (Osaka Gakuin Univ.), Nov. 22, 2009
[Posted on Jun. 13, 2010] 

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Editor's Note (Toru Nakagawa, Jun. 4, 2010)

This paper was presented as the Keynote Lecture at the Fifth TRIZ Symposium in Japan, 2009, which was held September last year by 'Japan TRIZ Society, NPO'.  Mr. Boris Zlotin was a follower and coworker of Mr. Altshuller for many years and is a prominent TRIZ Master.  As is described in the Author's Abstract, he has been working on the present topic of technology prediction for over 3 decades and has developed the Directed Evolution methodology.  In this Keynote Lecture he talks about the problems in technology prediction, the philosophy and methods in the Directed Evolution with some examples.  Technology prediction is still, or ever more, important issue in industries and in TRIZ research

Presentation slides are posted in PDF in the Official Web Site of Japan TRIZ Society since Dec. 1, 2009.  Thus I put links to them here:  Slides PDF in English   and slides PDF in Japanese translation (by SHinsuke Kurosawa, SANNO Inst. of Management) .

Last November I posted an introduction to this lecture as a part of my Personal Report of the Symposium.  The excerpt is posted here again in English.  Since the Symposium did not request a full paper for the Keynotes, I hope my introduction may be of some help for you to understnd the essence of the Keynote Lecture. 
[In the Japanese page, this introduction is not yet posted in Japanese translation.  Sorry but I have to choose posting more papers of the last year TRIZ Symposium publicly in this Web site without taking time for translation work.]


[1] Abstact

Use of TRIZ for Prediction of the Future of Technological Systems

Boris Zlotin (TRIZ Master, Ideation International Inc, USA),
Alla Zusman (TRIZ Master, Ideation International Inc, USA)

Abstract

The first successful attempts to apply TRIZ for forecasting of technology were made by TRIZ originator Genrich Altshuller in the end of 1960s. Since 1975 when Altshuller introduced the first system of patterns of technological evolution, Boris Zlotin has been involved in TRIZ forecasting, including development and further improvement of methods for TRIZ forecasting and managing evolution. For over last three decades, TRIZ forecasting projects for various systems from the majority of the areas of human activities have been conducted. This work has resulted in development of Directed Evolution methodology for the purpose of studying the given system evolution, predicting possible positive and negative events and solving inventive problems ensuring realization of preferable outcome.

Directed Evolution methodology includes analytical (DE questionnaires, algorithms for cause-effect analysis and failure prediction, etc.) and knowledge base (over 600 patterns and lines of evolution, Bank of Prognostic Scenarios, Operators for solving inventive problems, etc.) instruments that could be applied manually for relatively simple systems or educational purposes. For full scale projects, Directed Evolution software is recommended.

The presentation will also include the brief history of TRIZ forecasting, several examples of completed projects in various areas and selected utilized instruments.


[2]  Presentation Slides of the Keynote Lecture in PDF

Presentation Slides in English in PDF   (43  slides, 1.8 MB)

Presentation Slides in Japanese in PDF (43 slides, 1.9 MB) (Japanese translation by Shinsuke Kurosawa (SANNO Institute of Management) )


[3]  Introduction to the Presentation (by Nakagawa)

Excerpt from: 
Personal Report of The Fifth TRIZ Symposium in Japan, 2009, Part A
by Toru Nakagawa (Osaka Gakuin University), Nov. 22, 2009
Posted on Nov. 23, 2009 in "TRIZ Home Page in Japan"

Boris Zlotin, Alla Zusman (Ideation International Inc, USA) [EI01 K-1] gave the first Keynote Lecture on the first day afternoon with the title of "Use of TRIZ for Prediction of the Future of Technological Systems".  The Keynote speaker, Mr. Boris Zlotin, is TRIZ Master and was a follower and coworker of Mr. Altshuller for many years.  [The presentation slides have been posted publicly in the Official Site of Japan TRIZ Society.  You may access the PDF file directly:  , and its Japanese translation by Shinsuke Kurosawa (Dec. 6, 2009, TN)]  Here I will quote his Abstract first:

The first successful attempts to apply TRIZ for forecasting of technology were made by TRIZ originator Genrich Altshuller in the end of 1960s. Since 1975 when Altshuller introduced the first system of patterns of technological evolution, Boris Zlotin has been involved in TRIZ forecasting, including development and further improvement of methods for TRIZ forecasting and managing evolution. For over last three decades, TRIZ forecasting projects for various systems from the majority of the areas of human activities have been conducted. This work has resulted in development of Directed Evolution methodology for the purpose of studying the given system evolution, predicting possible positive and negative events and solving inventive problems ensuring realization of preferable outcome.

Directed Evolution methodology includes analytical (DE questionnaires, algorithms for cause-effect analysis and failure prediction, etc.) and knowledge base (over 600 patterns and lines of evolution, Bank of Prognostic Scenarios, Operators for solving inventive problems, etc.) instruments that could be applied manually for relatively simple systems or educational purposes. For full scale projects, Directed Evolution software is recommended.

The presentation will also include the brief history of TRIZ forecasting, several examples of completed projects in various areas and selected utilized instruments.

The two slides (shown below) state the position and purpose of the Directed Evolution and its history.

 

The slogan of 'Control the Evolution' sounds very strong. The reasoning that this is possible is shown in the following slide (below-left).  While a (technical) system is evolving (or growing) along a certain direction, it is easy to predict the near future directions and thus difficult to influence (or change) on its evolving direction.  But when the system reaches at a crisis point due to its maturity or its heading at a serious contradiction, there can be several alternative possible ways (i.e. branched ways) of evolution.  At such a crisis point, it is usually difficult to predict which branch or direction the system evolves on, but at the same time it is easy to influence on the choice of the alternatives.  Thus the Authors advocate to consider beforehand the possible alternative directions of the system at such a critical point and to evaluate the merits/demerits and the relative possibilities of alternative directions; thus to predict the most possible directions and to try to ride on the most possible or most preferable (for you) way of evolution.  The next slide (below-right) explains about this situation for the case of predicting the system's evolution over one or multiple crisis points.

  

The slide (below-left) shows an example of figuring out different possible alternatives for the future of  an existing product, i.e. a Foot Spa, in this case.  Generating such ideas of possible alternatives in DE will enhance the decision making ability, as is explained in the slide (below-right).

 

The actual process to be taken in DE is illustrated in the slide (below).  The steps (1) through (5) are taken by using the methods schematically shown with diagrams and tables.  These steps can be done manually for simple cases, and can better be carried out with software provided by Ideation International for bigger/complicated cases.

The DE method explained so far by the Authors (using 23 slides) has been established and published for these nearly 10 years (e.g. you may notice the copyright statement saying 2001-2009).  In the Proceedings the Authors have additional 12 slides which show an interesting case of Directed Evolution Project "Vehicle of the Future".  Unfortunately, in his lecture, Boris Zlotin spent nearly 70 minutes up to here and had only one minute left for this case study mentioning "A case study is shown. You can read it because it is obvious". --- *** I feel that almost all the audience would be much happier if the speaker explained the general part for 30 minutes and the case study for the latter 30 minutes.  Anyway, I will quote 3 slides in his Case Study without explanation.  They are really interesting information.

 

 

Top of this page Abstract Slides in PDF Nakagawa's Introduction Slides in Japanese, PDF Nakagawa's Personal Report of Japan TRIZ Symp. 2009 Japan TRIZ Symp. 2009 Japanese page

 

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Last updated on Jun. 13, 2010.     Access point:  Editor: nakagawa@ogu.ac.jp